Though sales volumes remain erratic and unsatisfactory across the used truck space, pricing is starting to normalize in the retail space after stabilizing last quarter in the auction sector, J.D. Power reported Friday in its July 2024 Commercial Truck Guidelines report.
Within the auction space, J.D. Power states a "substantial volume" of Class 8 sleeper tractors was sold in June, which is not unusual for the month. Pricing decreased moderately compared to May, but the second quarter saw very little depreciation on average.
Among late-model sleepers, average pricing within J.D. Power's benchmark model was as follows:
- Model year (MY) 2021: $43,669; $3,128 (6.7%) lower than May
- MY 2020: $37,962; $2,716 (7.7%) higher than May
- MY 2019: $26,578; $2,120 (6.4%) lower than May
- MY2018: $16,755; $12,328 (42.4%) lower than May
The company states the unusual drop in model-year 2018 selling prices is due to a return to a more normal mix of make, model, and specs after an anomalous May. Otherwise, in June, selling prices for 4- to 6-year-old sleepers dipped 2.3% compared to May, ending a three-month run of essentially unchanged values.
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J.D. Power says values for this age group are about 8% lower than the strong pre-pandemic period of 2018 in nominal figures, or about 24% lower if adjusted for inflation. Current pricing is about 43% higher than the last market nadir in late 2019, or about 18% higher if adjusted for inflation. Depreciation in 2024 is averaging 3.5% per month, but the entirety of that depreciation occurred in the January-March period, the company adds.
As J.D. Power's Chris Visser stated in a Used Truck Association (UTA) webinar Thursday, price stability in an oversupplied market suggests a market floor. In the absence of any notably negative economic data, J.D. Power says dealers can expect minimal to moderate depreciation in the short term.
Pricing was steady in the retail space too, though volume was "shockingly low," the company says.
Overall, the average sleeper tractor retailed in June was 68 months old, had 443,999 miles and brought $56,134. Compared with May, J.D. Power says this average sleeper was three months newer, had 5,655 (1.3%) more miles and brought $3,626 (6.1%) less money. Compared with June 2023, this average sleeper was six months newer, had 16,161 (3.5%) fewer miles and brought $12,464 (18.2%) less money.
J.D. Power adds June’s average pricing for late-model trucks was as follows:
- MY 2023: $120,953 $9,162 (7.0%) lower than May
- MY 2022: $94,082; $800 (0.8%) lower than May
- MY 2021: $72,559; $674 (0.9%) higher than May
- MY 2020: $50,627; $1,788 (3.4%) lower than May
- MY 2019: $41,856; $953 (2.2%) lower than May
- MY 2018: $28,766; $2,487 (8.0%) lower than May
Marketwide, J.D. Power says 3- to 5-year-old sleeper tractors brought 0.9% less money in June than May, and 12.7% less than June 2023. Late-model sleepers also are bringing slightly less money than the last strong pre-pandemic period of early 2019 in nominal dollars, or about 20% less when adjusted for inflation.
Compared with the last weak pre-pandemic period, J.D. Power says late-model sleeper values are running 23% higher in nominal dollars or essentially equal money in real dollars. Depreciation in 2024 is averaging 2.5% per month, which is historically typical.
In the daycab space, J.D. Power says trucks sold in June recovered some of May’s drop but continue to trend closer to sleepers as supply increases. Late-model daycabs brought 6.2% more money in June than May. Compared with June 2023, this segment brought 16.8% less money. Average monthly depreciation in 2024 for this segment is currently equal to sleepers, at 2.5%.
[RELATED: June used truck market bucks trend as volumes slip]
The company says volume was the real story last month.
"June is typically a weaker month for retail sales as the industry is in working mode as opposed to acquisition mode. However, this month’s result was downright dismal — the lowest since the Great Recession," the company states. "Finance and equity conditions have of course been very difficult for individuals and small fleets for over two years now, and it is possible the usual quadrennial pre-election jitters have set in early. July should recover a bit, but we are still in a low-demand environment."
For more information, and to read the entirety of this month’s report, please CLICK HERE.