J.D. Power reports May's auction volumes were up month-over-month, as was retail volume and pricing, the company reported Wednesday in its June Commercial Truck Guidelines report.
"Most of the severe tariffs announced earlier this year have been rolled back, although some degree of protectionism is still present in the trade agreements currently being announced," J.D. Power says. "Current tariff levels will result in varying degrees of price increases in selected industry segments. Each new 'deal' announced adds incremental visibility to business planning beyond the next 30-90 days, but the trucking industry is still in a cautious frame of mind."
In retail, buyers continue to favor low-mileage trucks over new, spurring dealer interest in reconditioning and marketing those vehicles.
At auction
Selling prices were down at auction, but volume was up in line with expectations, J.D. Power says. Average pricing for the benchmark truck in May was:
- 2023 model: $70,792, or $25,943 (26.8%) lower than April.
- 2022 model: $59,644, or $3,508 (5.6%) lower than April.
- 2021 model: $42,999, or $471 (1.1%) lower than April.
- 2020 model: $34,576, or $1,341 (3.7%) lower than April.
- 2019 model: $25,400, or $3,239 (11.3%) lower than April.
Selling prices for the four-to-six-year-old cohort of the benchmark truck averaged 3.7% lower than April and 23.9% higher than May 2024. That pricing is 20.3% higher than the pre-pandemic period of 2018 in nominal figures, or 5.7% lower adjusted for inflation, and 84% higher than the market low in late 2019. That's 47.4% higher adjusted for inflation.
J.D. Power notes that, typically, midyear sees a slew of three-year-old trucks moving through auctions. That's not the case this year. Owners seem to be keeping rigs in service longer than usual, the company says, possibly taking advantage of available freight and postponing trading for new. Dealers are also choosing to recondition and sell the newest trades, which keeps them out of the auction channel.
The low volume of 2023 trucks means averages are skewed, J.D. Power says.
"Monthly comparisons for that year are not indicative of actual market movement," the company says. "The main takeaway is trucks with less than 400,000 miles continue to bring strong money."
Retail update
Sleeper pricing was up slightly month-over-month, J.D. Power says, and volume was healthy by recent standards. The average sleeper sold in May was 55 months old with 438,158 miles. It cost $65,452. Compared with April, the average sleeper was five months newer, with 2,311 fewer miles and brought $5,006 more money. Year-over-year, the average sleeper this year was 16 months newer with equal miles and brought $5,692 more.
The average pricing for late-model trucks was:
- 2024 model: $132,717, or $2,754 (2%) lower than April.
- 2023 model: $101,696, or $4,757 (4.9%) higher than April.
- 2022 model: $76,200, or $872 (1.2%) higher than April.
- 2021 model: $57,230, or $113 (0.2%) lower than April.
- 2020 model: $43,557, or (7.6%) lower than April.
Three- to five-year-old sleepers brought slightly more — 0.8% — than in April and 25.9% more than May 2024. Late-model sleepers are bringing 21.4% more money than the last strong pre-pandemic period of early 2019 in nominal dollars or 5% less when adjusted for inflation. Late-model sleepers are 44.8% higher than in the last weak pre-pandemic period of late 2019, or 15.7% higher in real dollars. Depreciation to date this year is essentially flat.
Year-over-year have been positive since December, J.D. Power says, and month-over-month comparisons have been positive since January.
Retail sales per dealership continue to beat last year. Dealers reported selling 3.2 trucks per rooftop in May, up from April's 2.8. That's the highest number since June 2023. Total retail sales were up 4.2% month-over-month but down 29.7% year-over-year.
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