Truck makers ordering more product than industry forecasts believe necessary is beginning to cause consternation for heavy-duty suppliers, reported MEMA Senior Director of Market Research and Analysis Richard Anderson during the association’s monthly Pulse webinar Wednesday.
In releasing the results of MEMA’s May supplier survey, Anderson says market uncertainty concerns that first took center stage in April grew substantially in May and now stand as the biggest ongoing concern for the supplier community. Anderson says MEMA’s survey responders are frustrated by discrepancies between industry forecasts and OEM forecasts that are adding complexity to business planning for next year.
“Forecast planning is very much the biggest issue for suppliers now,” Anderson says. Inflation, parts availability and labor — the “big three” supplier concerns throughout 2022 — are still creating challenges but have mostly receded into the background as the market has recalibrated to manage them. Anderson says forecasting is now a bigger challenge because suppliers are unsure on what forecasts to trust.
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Results from May’s Pulse survey indicate suppliers have slightly more confidence in industry forecasts from data firms and experts for the remainder of the year and 2024 than their OEM partners. On a 1-to-7 scale where 1 is low confidence and 7 is extreme confidence, suppliers rate current year OE forecasts at 4.05 and 2024 forecasts and 3.05. For industry forecasts, those averages climb slightly to 4.23 for the current year and 3.64 for next year. Anderson also notes 32% of responders ranked the 2024 OE forecast as a 1 or 2 on confidence and no responder ranked it above a 5.
That sentiment tracked with feelings shared by Wednesday’s webinar attendees.
