While 2025 earnings looked bleak, there is hope in 2026 guidance

See how heavy-duty companies fared in the fourth quarter

Despite a mostly flat, at best, 2025, many heavy-duty companies see green shoots of recovery in 2026.
Despite a mostly flat, at best, 2025, many heavy-duty companies see green shoots of recovery in 2026.

As might be expected for 2025, earnings numbers are down pretty much across the board. However, there is reason to hope 2026 might be better, especially toward the end of the year.

“We saw improvement in Class 8 quoting activity and order intake late in the fourth quarter and overall demand for new commercial vehicles continues to improve in the first quarter of 2026,” says W.M. “Rusty” Rush, chairman, CEO and president of Rush Enterprises. “Increased clarity around tariffs and medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles, along with the Environmental Protection Agency’s anticipated confirmation of the 2027 NOx emissions standard, has reduced a significant amount of market uncertainty.”

Allison Transmission

Allison reported its earnings the last week of February. Net sales were down 7% year over year to $737 million in the fourth quarter, as the company showed a 14% decrease in net sales in North American on-highway and a 5% decrease in net sales in service parts, support equipment and other.

Breaking down the North American dip, Allison says it was driven by lower Class 8 demand, lower vocational and medium-duty demand. It was offset by price increases on some products and market share gains for hybrid propulsion systems for transit buses.

Net income was off 43% in the quarter to $1.18 million as Allison wrapped an acquisition of Dana’s off-highway business. However, the company says it expects the off-highway deal to be accretive to net income in 2026.

[RELATED: Dana, Allison complete sale of Dana's off-highway business]

For this year, Allison expects Class 8 demand in North America will be driven by infrastructure spending and megaprojects and medium-duty demand will be impacted by consumer spending and macroeconomic health. Furthermore, increased fleet ages and trucks outside of warranty will fuel more service and support equipment demand.

Cummins

Components and engines both slip for Cummins while power systems and distribution sales are up. See the whole picture here.

Dana Incorporated

Dana’s fourth-quarter sales were up slightly year over year, driven by increased demand in light trucks that offset commercial truck doldrums. Adjusted EBITDA on the quarter was $208 million, an 11.1% margin, compared with $84 million and 4.7% for the same quarter 2024.

[RELATED: Foster tapped as Dana CEO]

For the full year 2025, sales were down slightly at $7.5 billion but adjusted EBITDA was nearly doubled at $610 million. Dana points to cost savings and performance improvements that overcame lower sales and the negative effects of tariffs. The company’s three-year, new-business backlog totals $750 million and it expects $200 million in incremental new business growth.

At the same time it reported earnings, Dana released long-term guidance as part of its Dana 2030 strategy, which aims to generate $10 billion in sales by 2030, a 33% increase over its 2026 forecast. For the coming year, it’s aiming for $7.3-7.7 billion in sales with an adjusted EBITDA of $750-850 million and 10-11% margins. 

Dorman Products

Dorman Products reported net sales were up slightly (0.8%) to $537.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2025.

“The fourth quarter capped an outstanding year with strong top- and bottom-line growth,” says Kevin Olsen, Dorman president and CEO. “During the year, we delivered record new product sales, advanced our operational and supply chain diversification initiatives, and made strategic investments in organic growth opportunities.”

For the full year 2025, the company reported net sales of $2,103 million, up 6%. Gross profit was $897.7 million, or 42% of net sales. In heavy duty specifically, net sales were flat at $232.6 million.

The company predicts 7-8% in net sales growth in 2026 and assumes no net change in tariff impacts after the Supreme Court’s ruling and the administration’s announcement of replacement tariffs.

Genuine Parts Company

Genuine Parts Company (GPC), parent company of NAPA and Traction Heavy Duty, announced its earnings in February on the same day it announced it will split into two companies, one focused on vehicles and one on industrial parts.

“We continued to advance our GPC strategies in 2026 while navigating a dynamic environment, thanks to the commitment of our teammates,” says Will Stengel, chairman-elect and CEO. “We stayed focused on what we can control, executing defined initiatives to deliver growth and improve productivity.”

Fourth quarter sales were $6 billion, up 4.1% from the same period in 2024. Adjusted net income was $216 million. During Q4, GPS realigned its automotive parts group into North America Automotive, the United States and Canada,  and International Automotive, Europe and Australasia. North American automotive sales were up 2.4% to $2.3 billion. Industrial sales were up 4.6% to $2.2 billion.

For the full year 2025, sales were up 3.5% to $24.3 billion and adjusted net income was $1 billion. For 2026, the company expects total sales to be up 3-5.5% with North American automotive sales up 3-5%. 

LKQ Corporation

LKQ Corporation notched slightly higher earnings for the fourth quarter than from the same period in 2024. Revenue was $3.3 billion, up 2.7%. Parts and service revenue was up 2.2%. Net income, however, was down by half. The fourth quarter had $75 million in net income compared to $151 million in the same period of 2024.

For the full year 2025, revenue came in at $13.7 billion, down 1.3% from 2024. Total parts and services revenue decreased 1.5%. Net income was $596 million compared to $666 million for the same period 2024.

In January, the board announced a comprehensive review of strategic alternatives in order to simplify LKQ’s business portfolio and operations, expand lean operating modal globally, invest and grow organically, and pursue a disciplined capital allocation strategy. The board approved a restructuring plan expected to result in charges of $60-70 million and generate more than $50 million in annual cost savings.

“Operational excellence remains our core focus as our teams continue to drive simplification and productivity in an uncertain demand environment,” says Rick Galloway, senior vice president and chief financial officer. “Our 2026 guidance reflects current market conditions and assumes gradual improvement as the year progresses.”

For 2026, the company expects organic revenue growth for parts and services of up to 1.5%, including impacts from U.S. and retaliatory tariffs.

Rush Enterprises

Rush Enterprises, the company that operates the largest network of commercial vehicle dealerships in North America, saw revenues dip 5% in 2025. Read the full story, including an outlook for 2026, here.

Paccar

Paccar reported earnings in January, showing a down fourth quarter and full year 2025. See the full story here.

Phinia

Phinia, maker of fuel and electrical systems and other aftermarket solutions, announced its earnings in February. For the fourth quarter, it had net sales of $889 million, an uptick of 6.7% over Q4 2024. The company saw increased sales volumes in the Americas, it said, and recorded an adjusted EBITDA of $116 million.

[RELATED: Phinia releases sustainability report]

For the full year 2025, net sales were up 2.4% to $3.48 billion with an adjusted EBITDA of $478, which was flat over 2024. It cited key truck contract extensions with global commercial OEMs as a highlight of the year, as well as the addition of 5,800 new SKUs across its aftermarket portfolio.

“Q4 capped a year of disciplined execution,” says Brady Ericson, president and CEO. “We navigated evolving tariffs through our operational depth and strong customer partnerships. Despite softer markets, our results were resilient — reflecting the strength of our strategy and the commitment of our team. Looking ahead to 2026, we are focused on driving organic growth through continued execution and targeted innovation, sustaining strong value creation for our customers and shareholders.”

Volvo

Volvo’s fourth quarter saw a 34% drop in North American orders year over year, pulling down global sales 11%. See the full story here.

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