Highlights from the 2026 Q3 MarketPulse reader survey
- Aftermarket Q3 rating dropped to 5.45, marking the largest negative gap between expectations and reality in nine quarters.
- Dealer confidence remains stronger for Q4, predicting 6.46 versus aftermarket's 5.14 forecast.
- Both channels expect 1-5% improvement over the next six months, though aftermarket faces greater pessimism with 23% expecting worse conditions.
The wheels may once again be coming off in the independent aftermarket. The strong bump to business conditions that buoyed the channel in the first quarter and kept operations mostly stable in Q2 came undone in the third quarter, according to our most recent Trucks, Parts, Service MarketPulse quarterly survey.
Following the conclusion of the first quarter earlier this year, aftermarket responders to our quarterly survey rated the opening three months of the year as a 6.47 on our 1-10 scale (where 1 is the worst quarter ever and 10 is the best). That number was hardly a record but it was a recent high-water mark, and the strongest quarterly rating by aftermarket or dealer responders to our survey since the third quarter of 2023, which dealers rated as a 6.70 and aftermarket responders as a 6.90.
The 6.47 also represented a rare overachievement. Aftermarket responders had predicted a 6.29 for the quarter at the conclusion of 2025. The positivity was no longer present in aftermarket responders’ Q3 analysis or Q4 projections.
It appears the dealer channel — strengthened by nine months of strong truck orders that are leading to a recent uptick in deliveries — is the stronger segment entering Q4.
Aftermarket strength eliminated
More than 40% of aftermarket responders to our Q3 survey rated the quarter as a 5 or below on our 1-10 scale, including 5% who said it was their worst quarter ever and another 5% each rating the quarter as a 2 or 3. The channel average was 5.45. Individual 2 and 3 ratings also occurred in Q2, but worst quarter ever designation hadn’t been levied in the aftermarket since the final quarter of 2024. As recent as six months ago, no aftermarket responder had rated Q1 as below a 4.
How aftermarket responders have rated quarterly business conditions in the history of TPS MarketPulse survey.
The market downswing wasn’t a surprise but the severity was notable. After rating Q2 as a 6.29, our aftermarket responders predicted a 6.00 for Q3. The 0.55-point gulf between expectation and reality is the largest negative gulf seen among aftermarket responder forecast rates in nine quarters.
Few aftermarket responders offered comments in completing our Q3 survey, but one did note succinctly, “the economy is driving our business [and] with high diesel prices we’re seeing, our owner-operators struggling every day.”
Dealers hardly booming, but at least improving
The aftermarket’s Q3 tumble created a sudden shift in fortunes among our responder segments.
The aftermarket had outperformed the dealer channel for six quarters until Q3. But when the ratings came in, dealers pegged Q3 as a 6.15 on our 1-10 scale, well ahead of the aftermarket’s 5.45, and the highest dealer rating for a quarter since a 6.40 in Q4 2023.
Yet fascinatingly enough, Q3 wasn’t great for the dealer channel either.
How dealer responders have rated quarterly business conditions in the history of TPS MarketPulse survey.
Dealers had predicted a 6.53 for Q3 after Q2, so last quarter still fell below dealer expectations. Additionally, in forecasting a 6.46 for Q4, it appears dealer confidence is mostly unchanged to down since our July survey, despite the channel now appearing far stronger than the aftermarket.
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“Still feels like people are holding their breath,” wrote one dealer responder. “Fleets are scavenging their own trucks to get equipment back on the road with lower costs. The replacement cycle is still broken/hungover from COVID and there is no ‘new normal’ yet.”
The stumbling service conundrum
The American Trucking Associations (ATA) and Decisiv reported in August an uptick in service volumes in Q1 after a multi-quarter skid, but it appears that strength didn’t last through the summer for our survey responders.
Half of our aftermarket responders and 54% of our dealer responders pegged their service operations as the weakest segment of their business in Q3, based on year-over-year sales. Only 15% of dealers and 14% of aftermarket responders held the opposite view, and considered their service operations a strength.
Parts (46%) and new truck sales (38%) were the strongest business units for dealers in Q3. Aftermarket responders overwhelmingly (82%) cited parts as their best unit in Q3.
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And yet even with softer service sales, responders across both channels are still frustrated by technician hiring and retention, with half of aftermarket responders and 38% of dealers rating it a top five concern for their business.
“A key issue remains finding new people who want to work,” one aftermarket responder said.
People still crave optimism
Dealer confidence far outpaces the aftermarket for this quarter, as the former predicts a 6.46 for Q4 and the latter just a 5.14. But looking out six months, both channels still believer (or hope) business will be strong.
Adjusting for seasonality, 69% of dealers expect business conditions to be 1-5% better in the next six months against the same period last year. In the aftermarket, that total is 64%. Only 8% of dealers expect business to be worse, whereas among aftermarket responders that total is 23%.
“There is more chatter and quotes happening [now] than at any time in the last 24 months,” wrote one dealer responder. “Optimistic the market is considering purchases even with economic headwinds.”
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Another wrote, “New truck demand is holding up quite well. Parts has been strong. Rental utilization is healthy. Mobile service is growing. All in all, pretty strong quarter with what looks like another one to finish out the year.”
But concerns still exist. As another dealer wrote, “Our customers are not making any long-term decisions due to high fuel prices and a general reluctance to believe the freight rates/loads available are going to stabilize.”
TPS will conduct its 2026 fourth quarter MarketPulse survey in January and publish a brief synopsis of the data after it concludes.
Want to read more insights from our third-quarter survey? Or participate in future surveys? We’d love to hear from you.
All truck and trailer dealers and independent aftermarket businesses are encouraged to participate in the TPS MarketPulse survey, and only businesses who choose to participate will receive complete survey results each quarter. For more information, and to register, please email [email protected].
