Preliminary numbers for February show net trailer orders dropped month over month, ACT Research and FTR reported Wednesday.
ACT Research showed orders down 3,700 units, or 17% month over month and 14% year-over-year. Seasonally adjusted, that's 12% below January. FTR had orders down 18% month over month at 20,874 units, but said its data shows orders up 3% from February 2024.
Overall, FTR says February represents the fourth consecutive month with net orders exceeding 20,000 units and positive year over year growth but says the 2025 order season (September 2024 through February) is down year over year due to a slow order start last fall.
Jennifer McNealy, director of commercial vehicle market research and publications at ACT, says the month over month drop was not unexpected at this point in the intake cycle, "given the uncertainty currently plaguing the U.S. commercial vehicle industry and the economy at large."
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"New and pending U.S. tariffs, along with retaliatory measures, pose significant risks to the North American trailer market," adds Dan Moyer, FTR senior analyst of commercial vehicles. "Tariffs will affect not only imported trailers but also domestic trailers, depending on the extent of imported materials, and the market effects could be broad-based. OEMs face higher production costs, tighter margins and potentially slowing or stagnant demand. Suppliers may encounter supply chain disruptions and increased financial strain. Fleets could see higher trailer prices and longer lead times, prompting delayed purchases or shifts toward investing in power units once again. Overall, tariff-related uncertainty presents strategic challenges industrywide."
McNealy has a similar outlook. "Despite the ambiguity that continues to buttress the trailer market pause we've seen for the last year, made worse by the constant policy shifting of the last few months, orders are expected to be placed, but at a subdued level throughout 2025."
She adds weak trailer demand from a weak for-hire truck market, low used equipment valuations, full dealer inventories and high interest rates aren't helping either.
As for the truck sales impact on trailers, FTR states although many fleets prioritized purchasing power units over trailers in 2024, U.S. trailer net orders of 46,298 for 2025 to date have outpaced U.S. Class 8 net orders by 9,554 units. Whether this trend will continue in the near term is uncertain. Moyer adds FTR will continue watching "whether the EPA’s recently announced plan to revisit its 2027 truck NOx emissions change disrupts fleet equipment strategies that otherwise presumably would have led to fleets prioritizing power unit orders over trailers by late this year, if not earlier.”
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As for builds, FTR states total trailers built in February increased 23% month over month to 15,800 units but remained down 34% year over year. The stronger-than-seasonal monthly increase was likely driven by improved order levels in recent months and efforts by some OEMs to produce additional units ahead of potential tariffs expected in March or April.
FTR continues trailer build for 2025 to date is down 34% year over year. With total trailer net orders outpacing production, backlogs increased by 4,298 units, or 4%, month over month. The sharper increase in production than in backlogs reduced the backlog/build ratio slightly to a still-healthy 7.8 months, the company
