We talk Tesla in this week’s roundup. The popular car maker once again teased its Semi this week so we looked at the company said, its production intent for 2026 and how it has updated its Semi design since first launching the landmark Class 8 BEV in 2017. We also consider the most recent equipment sales and freight outlook reports from FTR and ACT Research, discuss how to put guardrails in your business around AI, a 2025 and 2026 tire sales forecast and more.
Lucas: Hey everyone. Lucas here back again for another TPS Weekly News Roundup.
Some interesting news this week, I want to start with Tesla. Tesla announcing earlier this week, earlier this month, that they will begin mass production on their Semi at a plant in Nevada in 2026. Now, the Tesla Semi isn’t new. It was first announced in 2017, and mass production has been teased at for really the last five years. There’s about 70 trucks on the road right now in fleet trials, but Tesla is saying they’re going to begin production in 2026 with the goal of producing up to 50,000 units annually. Additionally, in announcing the plans for 2026, Tesla’s made some changes to the design of the Semi. The 2017 design [was] a little bit dated. They’ve made some changes, mostly aerodynamic improvements, but did update the chassis a little bit, made some changes to the cab and the windshield.
So, you can check out that story on TPS. Really interesting to see what Tesla is expecting for 2026. And this story does seem like they’re a little bit more serious about launching this truck in 2026 than maybe they’ve said in prior years, when it’s just kind of been kicked down the down the road.
Some other news this week, we had a couple stories. FTR had a ‘State of Freight’ webinar on Thursday. ACT also released their most recent Outlook report on 2026 expectations for truck sales. Now, as you know, truck sales are down about 30% this year, year over year. And the first 10 months of the year have all been down year over year from 2024. The expectation going into 2025 is things are not going be that much better. We’re looking at probably 210- to 220,000-units in the Class 8 space. Expectations are that the market will continue to be down.
FTR noted that in addition to trucks being down about 30%, rail cars are also down about 30% in sales this year. Which means it’s not just truckers that are not investing. It’s not just fleets. The rail companies also aren’t investing in new equipment. The uncertainty of the economy is really impacting both shipping channels. FTR did positively downsize their recession forecast to 35%. It was as high as 45% this summer. So, they have pulled that back a little bit. It appears that the larger macroeconomic market conditions are still strong enough that a recession is unlikely but possible. But some interesting stuff there from FTR and ACT Research this week. If you didn't see those stories, check that out.
I also want to call attention to a story we had about AI and AI usage in your business that Associate Editor Beth Colvin wrote. And this was really great because it was kind of a guidance piece for how you can use it and being prepared for it. Beth’s big point is people on your team are probably already using it or they’re considering using it. Make sure you have an AI policy so they’re using it properly. Just know if you put something into Chat GPT, if you put it into Gemini or whatever tool you’re using — and there’s no guardrails — that information exists in that tool forever once you’ve input it. So you need to have some guidelines. You need to be able to tell your people what they can use, what they can’t use, what can be input into an AI tool and what shouldn't be. And really just some guidance on making sure they understand that those are open resource systems. Information that’s in there, once it’s in there, is sort of available to anyone else who is using the tool. So be careful when you’re using AI. It is a resource, it is something that can make your business run more effectively, but it does have some risks. Be aware of that and educate your team about that.
One last piece just before we go. MacKay & Company had a tire operators report this week for expectations — really a 2025 market update on tire sales in the commercial vehicle market and expectations for 2026. If you’re a tire distributor, a tire dealer, or you’re someone who does a lot of wheel and tire service work, check that story out. Also, some other really good pieces of news this week, check out the website, check out the newsletter. Be sure to like and subscribe these videos so you can get the next one next week. Have a great weekend and we will see you next week. Thanks everybody. Bye.
