Early 2025 data shows trucking business conditions are trending up again, a good sign for all corners of transportation but particularly the used truck space, which is approaching three years since its last market high, J.D. Power Director of Specialty Vehicles Chris Visser reported during a Used Truck Association (UTA) webinar Thursday.
Touching on the freight market, new truck demand and the macroeconomy as key inputs driving used truck dynamics, Visser said there is a lot to be optimistic about for commercial trucking in 2025. Not every indicator for the industry or used truck sector is trending up but, as for now, there’s more good news than bad.
In the carrier space, Visser cites ACT Research and FTR data that indicates trucking capacity and utilization have normalized, stabilizing the market and bringing the potential for rising contract rates and growing equipment demand in 2025. Interest rates also fell some in 2024, which should enable carriers eager to grow with a path to do so.
[RELATED: ATA reports truck tonnage flat in January]
“The relationship between [truck] supply and the demand for freight is better than it has been and improved steadily improved throughout 2024,” Visser says. “[Freight forecasters] are still looking at a more or less stable improvement in capacity, which translates to an increase in rates.”
Macroeconomic indicators are mostly positive too, though Visser notes President Trump’s commitment to tariffs creates uncertainty that could impact what was until very recently a steady if unremarkable period of economic growth.
“There is no feasible way that tariffs don’t increase prices somewhat,” he says. “Even if the long-term goal is to bring production back to the U.S., prices will rise in the interim.”
What does that all mean for used trucks?
Today very little. Over the course of the year, Visser is optimistic a stronger freight economy and resolution regarding tariffs will create clarity regarding used truck supply. He says a stronger freight environment will drive up spot rates and generate cash for used truck buyers to purchase in the market.
[RELATED: Used trucks up 16% month-over-month to kick off 2025]
But many used buyers also will enter dealerships with negative equity on their equipment purchased during the 2021 and 2022 sales boom that dealers will simply have to roll into new loans and hope customers can manage moving forward.
Visser says depreciation on sleeper units in the auction and retail sectors normalized in the second half of 2024, which is a positive, and if that continues it increases the likelihood customers entering the used buying market this year can make their payments on purchases made in the months ahead. He adds dealers eager to move units will have little choice but deal with that reality. “There’s no way out of the equity than rolling that into the next truck sale.”
